| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Nicholls | 71-3 | 1686.4 | +77.5 | 1763.9 | 99.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Washington State | 34-7 | 1763.9 | +48.1 | 1811.9 | 77.9% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Tulane | 31-20 | 1811.9 | -57.7 | 1754.3 | 89.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Cincinnati | 26-31 | 1754.3 | -28.2 | 1726.1 | 74.5% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Houston | 16-35 | 1716.1 | -25.6 | 1690.6 | 45.0% |